Algeria vs Austria

Our model rates Algeria at 1938 Elo and Austria at 1865. That 73-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a modest edge to Algeria.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Algeria by about 8 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.