Belgium vs Iran

Our model rates Belgium at 1988 Elo and Iran at 1940. That 48-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a near-even matchup.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Iran by about 12 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.