Canada vs Qatar
World Cup 2026 · 2026-06-18 · host nation
Canada
80%
Win
Draw
13%
Draw
Qatar
7%
Win
Market implied: Canada 76% · Draw 16% · Qatar 8% | our model vs the line, graded in public
Why our model leans this way
Our model rates Canada at 1927 Elo and Qatar at 1585. That 342-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Canada.
Our model and the betting market are broadly in agreement on this match — our probabilities track the market closely, which is what a well-calibrated model should do on a clear matchup.
Recent form
Canada DDWDD
Dvs Iceland2-2Mar 2026
Dvs Tunisia0-0Mar 2026
Wvs Uzbekistan2-0Jun 2026
Dvs Republic of Ireland1-1Jun 2026
Dvs Bosnia and Herzegovina1-1Jun 2026
Qatar DLLDD
Dvs Syria1-1Dec 2025
Lvs Tunisia0-3Dec 2025
Lat Republic of Ireland0-1May 2026
Dvs El Salvador0-0Jun 2026
Dvs Switzerland1-1Jun 2026
Head to head (recent)
Sep 2022Canada 2-0 Qatar
How to read this: these are calibrated probability estimates from a
ratings model, not a claim to beat the bookmakers and not betting advice. The model does not account for confirmed
lineups, injuries, or qualification scenarios. Every prediction is published before kickoff and graded on our
open ledger. If gambling is causing problems, call 1-800-GAMBLER.