Colombia vs DR Congo

Our model rates Colombia at 2054 Elo and DR Congo at 1739. That 314-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Colombia.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Colombia by about 17 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.