Croatia vs Ghana

Our model rates Croatia at 1962 Elo and Ghana at 1675. That 287-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Croatia.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Croatia by about 19 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.