DR Congo vs Uzbekistan

Our model rates DR Congo at 1739 Elo and Uzbekistan at 1831. That 92-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a modest edge to Uzbekistan.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Uzbekistan by about 20 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.