Ecuador vs Germany
World Cup 2026 · 2026-06-25
Ecuador
28%
Win
Draw
27%
Draw
Germany
46%
Win
Market implied: Ecuador 20% · Draw 25% · Germany 55% | our model vs the line, graded in public
Why our model leans this way
Our model rates Ecuador at 1914 Elo and Germany at 2012. That 98-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a modest edge to Germany.
Our model and the betting market are broadly in agreement on this match — our probabilities track the market closely, which is what a well-calibrated model should do on a clear matchup.
Recent form
Ecuador DDWWL
Dat Morocco1-1Mar 2026
Dat Netherlands1-1Mar 2026
Wvs Saudi Arabia2-1May 2026
Wvs Guatemala3-0Jun 2026
Lat Ivory Coast0-1Jun 2026
Germany WWWWW
Wat Switzerland4-3Mar 2026
Wvs Ghana2-1Mar 2026
Wvs Finland4-0May 2026
Wat United States2-1Jun 2026
Wvs Curaçao7-1Jun 2026
Head to head (recent)
Jun 2006Germany 3-0 Ecuador
May 2013Ecuador 2-4 Germany
How to read this: these are calibrated probability estimates from a
ratings model, not a claim to beat the bookmakers and not betting advice. The model does not account for confirmed
lineups, injuries, or qualification scenarios. Every prediction is published before kickoff and graded on our
open ledger. If gambling is causing problems, call 1-800-GAMBLER.