Egypt vs Iran

Our model rates Egypt at 1857 Elo and Iran at 1940. That 83-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a modest edge to Iran.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Iran by about 23 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.