England vs Croatia
World Cup 2026 · 2026-06-17
England
47%
Win
Draw
26%
Draw
Croatia
27%
Win
Market implied: England 56% · Draw 25% · Croatia 19% | our model vs the line, graded in public
Why our model leans this way
Our model rates England at 2088 Elo and Croatia at 1962. That 126-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a modest edge to England.
Our model and the betting market are broadly in agreement on this match — our probabilities track the market closely, which is what a well-calibrated model should do on a clear matchup.
Recent form
England WDLWW
Wat Albania2-0Nov 2025
Dvs Uruguay1-1Mar 2026
Lvs Japan0-1Mar 2026
Wvs New Zealand1-0Jun 2026
Wvs Costa Rica3-0Jun 2026
Croatia WWLLW
Wat Montenegro3-2Nov 2025
Wat Colombia2-1Mar 2026
Lat Brazil1-3Mar 2026
Lvs Belgium0-2Jun 2026
Wvs Slovenia2-1Jun 2026
Head to head (recent)
Sep 2009England 5-1 Croatia
Jul 2018Croatia 2-1 England
Oct 2018Croatia 0-0 England
Nov 2018England 2-1 Croatia
Jun 2021England 1-0 Croatia
How to read this: these are calibrated probability estimates from a
ratings model, not a claim to beat the bookmakers and not betting advice. The model does not account for confirmed
lineups, injuries, or qualification scenarios. Every prediction is published before kickoff and graded on our
open ledger. If gambling is causing problems, call 1-800-GAMBLER.