England vs Ghana

Our model rates England at 2088 Elo and Ghana at 1675. That 413-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to England.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward England by about 10 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.