France vs Iraq
World Cup 2026 · 2026-06-22
France
83%
Win
Draw
11%
Draw
Iraq
5%
Win
Market implied: France 86% · Draw 11% · Iraq 4% | our model vs the line, graded in public
Why our model leans this way
Our model rates France at 2147 Elo and Iraq at 1728. That 419-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to France.
Our model and the betting market are broadly in agreement on this match — our probabilities track the market closely, which is what a well-calibrated model should do on a clear matchup.
Recent form
France WWWLW
Wat Azerbaijan3-1Nov 2025
Wat Brazil2-1Mar 2026
Wat Colombia3-1Mar 2026
Lvs Ivory Coast1-2Jun 2026
Wvs Northern Ireland3-1Jun 2026
Iraq LWWDL
Lat Jordan0-1Dec 2025
Wvs Bolivia2-1Mar 2026
Wat Andorra1-0May 2026
Dat Spain1-1Jun 2026
Lvs Venezuela0-2Jun 2026
Head to head
No recent meetings on record.
How to read this: these are calibrated probability estimates from a
ratings model, not a claim to beat the bookmakers and not betting advice. The model does not account for confirmed
lineups, injuries, or qualification scenarios. Every prediction is published before kickoff and graded on our
open ledger. If gambling is causing problems, call 1-800-GAMBLER.