France vs Senegal
World Cup 2026 · 2026-06-16
France
62%
Win
Draw
20%
Draw
Senegal
17%
Win
Market implied: France 65% · Draw 22% · Senegal 13% | our model vs the line, graded in public
Why our model leans this way
Our model rates France at 2147 Elo and Senegal at 1964. That 183-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to France.
Our model and the betting market are broadly in agreement on this match — our probabilities track the market closely, which is what a well-calibrated model should do on a clear matchup.
Recent form
France WWWLW
Wat Azerbaijan3-1Nov 2025
Wat Brazil2-1Mar 2026
Wat Colombia3-1Mar 2026
Lvs Ivory Coast1-2Jun 2026
Wvs Northern Ireland3-1Jun 2026
Senegal LWWLD
Lat Morocco0-3Jan 2026
Wvs Peru2-0Mar 2026
Wvs Gambia3-1Mar 2026
Lat United States2-3May 2026
Dat Saudi Arabia0-0Jun 2026
Head to head (recent)
Apr 1963Senegal 2-0 France
May 2002France 0-1 Senegal
How to read this: these are calibrated probability estimates from a
ratings model, not a claim to beat the bookmakers and not betting advice. The model does not account for confirmed
lineups, injuries, or qualification scenarios. Every prediction is published before kickoff and graded on our
open ledger. If gambling is causing problems, call 1-800-GAMBLER.