Ghana vs Panama

Our model rates Ghana at 1675 Elo and Panama at 1884. That 209-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Panama.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Panama by about 30 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.