Iran vs New Zealand

Our model rates Iran at 1940 Elo and New Zealand at 1710. That 230-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Iran.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Iran by about 33 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.