Iraq vs Norway

Our model rates Iraq at 1728 Elo and Norway at 1948. That 220-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Norway.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Iraq by about 10 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.