Japan vs Sweden

Our model rates Japan at 2024 Elo and Sweden at 1801. That 223-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Japan.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Japan by about 18 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.