Mexico vs Czech Republic

Our model rates Mexico at 1993 Elo and Czech Republic at 1743. That 251-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Mexico.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Mexico by about 11 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.