Mexico vs South Korea
World Cup 2026 · 2026-06-18 · host nation
Mexico
47%
Win
Draw
26%
Draw
South Korea
27%
Win
Market implied: Mexico 48% · Draw 29% · South Korea 23% | our model vs the line, graded in public
Why our model leans this way
Our model rates Mexico at 1993 Elo and South Korea at 1936. That 57-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a modest edge to Mexico.
Our model and the betting market are broadly in agreement on this match — our probabilities track the market closely, which is what a well-calibrated model should do on a clear matchup.
Recent form
Mexico DWWWW
Dvs Belgium1-1Mar 2026
Wvs Ghana2-0May 2026
Wvs Australia1-0May 2026
Wvs Serbia5-1Jun 2026
Wvs South Africa2-0Jun 2026
South Korea LLWWW
Lat Ivory Coast0-4Mar 2026
Lat Austria0-1Mar 2026
Wvs Trinidad and Tobago5-0May 2026
Wvs El Salvador1-0Jun 2026
Wvs Czech Republic2-1Jun 2026
Head to head (recent)
Feb 2006Mexico 0-1 South Korea
Jan 2014Mexico 4-0 South Korea
Jun 2018South Korea 1-2 Mexico
Nov 2020Mexico 3-2 South Korea
Sep 2025Mexico 2-2 South Korea
How to read this: these are calibrated probability estimates from a
ratings model, not a claim to beat the bookmakers and not betting advice. The model does not account for confirmed
lineups, injuries, or qualification scenarios. Every prediction is published before kickoff and graded on our
open ledger. If gambling is causing problems, call 1-800-GAMBLER.