New Zealand vs Belgium
World Cup 2026 · 2026-06-26
New Zealand
7%
Win
Draw
13%
Draw
Belgium
79%
Win
Market implied: New Zealand 8% · Draw 16% · Belgium 76% | our model vs the line, graded in public
Why our model leans this way
Our model rates New Zealand at 1710 Elo and Belgium at 1988. That 278-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Belgium.
Our model and the betting market are broadly in agreement on this match — our probabilities track the market closely, which is what a well-calibrated model should do on a clear matchup.
Recent form
New Zealand LLWLL
Lat Ecuador0-2Nov 2025
Lvs Finland0-2Mar 2026
Wvs Chile4-1Mar 2026
Lat Haiti0-4Jun 2026
Lat England0-1Jun 2026
Belgium WWDWW
Wvs Liechtenstein7-0Nov 2025
Wat United States5-2Mar 2026
Dat Mexico1-1Mar 2026
Wat Croatia2-0Jun 2026
Wvs Tunisia5-0Jun 2026
Head to head
No recent meetings on record.
How to read this: these are calibrated probability estimates from a
ratings model, not a claim to beat the bookmakers and not betting advice. The model does not account for confirmed
lineups, injuries, or qualification scenarios. Every prediction is published before kickoff and graded on our
open ledger. If gambling is causing problems, call 1-800-GAMBLER.