Norway vs France

Our model rates Norway at 1948 Elo and France at 2147. That 200-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to France.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward France by about 13 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.