Norway vs Senegal

Our model rates Norway at 1948 Elo and Senegal at 1964. That 17-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a near-even matchup.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Senegal by about 9 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.