Paraguay vs Australia

Our model rates Paraguay at 1767 Elo and Australia at 1971. That 204-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Australia.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Australia by about 21 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.