Scotland vs Brazil

Our model rates Scotland at 1813 Elo and Brazil at 2098. That 284-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Brazil.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Brazil by about 10 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.