Spain vs Argentina

Our model rates Spain at 2351 Elo and Argentina at 2268. That 83-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a modest edge to Spain.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Argentina by about 12 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.