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Spain vs Saudi Arabia

World Cup 2026 · 2026-06-21
Spain
89%
Win
Draw
9%
Draw
Saudi Arabia
2%
Win
Market implied: Spain 86% · Draw 10% · Saudi Arabia 4%  |  our model vs the line, graded in public
Why our model leans this way

Our model rates Spain at 2264 Elo and Saudi Arabia at 1697. That 567-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Spain.

Our model and the betting market are broadly in agreement on this match — our probabilities track the market closely, which is what a well-calibrated model should do on a clear matchup.

Recent form
Spain DWDDW
Dvs Turkey2-2Nov 2025
Wvs Serbia3-0Mar 2026
Dvs Egypt0-0Mar 2026
Dvs Iraq1-1Jun 2026
Wat Peru3-1Jun 2026
Saudi Arabia LLLWD
Lvs Egypt0-4Mar 2026
Lat Serbia1-2Mar 2026
Lat Ecuador1-2May 2026
Wat Puerto Rico3-0Jun 2026
Dvs Senegal0-0Jun 2026
Head to head (recent)
Jun 2006Saudi Arabia 0-1 Spain
May 2010Spain 3-2 Saudi Arabia
Sep 2012Spain 5-0 Saudi Arabia
How to read this: these are calibrated probability estimates from a ratings model, not a claim to beat the bookmakers and not betting advice. The model does not account for confirmed lineups, injuries, or qualification scenarios. Every prediction is published before kickoff and graded on our open ledger. If gambling is causing problems, call 1-800-GAMBLER.