Tunisia vs Japan
World Cup 2026 · 2026-06-20
Tunisia
13%
Win
Draw
18%
Draw
Japan
70%
Win
Market implied: Tunisia 14% · Draw 23% · Japan 63% | our model vs the line, graded in public
Why our model leans this way
Our model rates Tunisia at 1699 Elo and Japan at 2024. That 324-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Japan.
Our model and the betting market are broadly in agreement on this match — our probabilities track the market closely, which is what a well-calibrated model should do on a clear matchup.
Recent form
Tunisia WDLLL
Wat Haiti1-0Mar 2026
Dat Canada0-0Mar 2026
Lat Austria0-1Jun 2026
Lat Belgium0-5Jun 2026
Lat Sweden1-5Jun 2026
Japan WWWWD
Wvs Bolivia3-0Nov 2025
Wat Scotland1-0Mar 2026
Wat England1-0Mar 2026
Wvs Iceland1-0May 2026
Dat Netherlands2-2Jun 2026
Head to head (recent)
Oct 1996Japan 1-0 Tunisia
Jun 2002Japan 2-0 Tunisia
Oct 2003Tunisia 0-1 Japan
Mar 2015Japan 2-0 Tunisia
Jun 2022Japan 0-3 Tunisia
How to read this: these are calibrated probability estimates from a
ratings model, not a claim to beat the bookmakers and not betting advice. The model does not account for confirmed
lineups, injuries, or qualification scenarios. Every prediction is published before kickoff and graded on our
open ledger. If gambling is causing problems, call 1-800-GAMBLER.