Tunisia vs Netherlands
World Cup 2026 · 2026-06-25
Tunisia
11%
Win
Draw
16%
Draw
Netherlands
72%
Win
Market implied: Tunisia 11% · Draw 19% · Netherlands 70% | our model vs the line, graded in public
Why our model leans this way
Our model rates Tunisia at 1699 Elo and Netherlands at 2019. That 320-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Netherlands.
Our model and the betting market are broadly in agreement on this match — our probabilities track the market closely, which is what a well-calibrated model should do on a clear matchup.
Recent form
Tunisia WDLLL
Wat Haiti1-0Mar 2026
Dat Canada0-0Mar 2026
Lat Austria0-1Jun 2026
Lat Belgium0-5Jun 2026
Lat Sweden1-5Jun 2026
Netherlands WDLWD
Wvs Norway2-1Mar 2026
Dvs Ecuador1-1Mar 2026
Lvs Algeria0-1Jun 2026
Wvs Uzbekistan2-1Jun 2026
Dvs Japan2-2Jun 2026
Head to head (recent)
Apr 1978Tunisia 0-4 Netherlands
Jan 1994Tunisia 2-2 Netherlands
Feb 2009Tunisia 1-1 Netherlands
How to read this: these are calibrated probability estimates from a
ratings model, not a claim to beat the bookmakers and not betting advice. The model does not account for confirmed
lineups, injuries, or qualification scenarios. Every prediction is published before kickoff and graded on our
open ledger. If gambling is causing problems, call 1-800-GAMBLER.