Uruguay vs Cape Verde

Our model rates Uruguay at 1940 Elo and Cape Verde at 1624. That 315-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Uruguay.

Notably, our model differs from the betting market here: we lean toward Uruguay by about 16 points more than the market does. This is where the prediction is most testable. The market may be pricing in squad news, injuries, or form signals our ratings-based model doesn't capture — or our recency-weighted ratings may be catching something the market is slow to. The result will settle it, and it'll be graded on our public ledger.