Uruguay vs Spain
World Cup 2026 · 2026-06-26
Uruguay
14%
Win
Draw
18%
Draw
Spain
68%
Win
Market implied: Uruguay 16% · Draw 23% · Spain 61% | our model vs the line, graded in public
Why our model leans this way
Our model rates Uruguay at 1940 Elo and Spain at 2264. That 324-point gap is the foundation of the prediction — a clear edge to Spain.
Our model and the betting market are broadly in agreement on this match — our probabilities track the market closely, which is what a well-calibrated model should do on a clear matchup.
Recent form
Uruguay WDLDD
Wat Uzbekistan2-1Oct 2025
Dat Mexico0-0Nov 2025
Lat United States1-5Nov 2025
Dat England1-1Mar 2026
Dat Algeria0-0Mar 2026
Spain DWDDW
Dvs Turkey2-2Nov 2025
Wvs Serbia3-0Mar 2026
Dvs Egypt0-0Mar 2026
Dvs Iraq1-1Jun 2026
Wat Peru3-1Jun 2026
Head to head (recent)
Sep 1991Spain 2-1 Uruguay
Jan 1995Spain 2-2 Uruguay
Aug 2005Spain 2-0 Uruguay
Feb 2013Spain 3-1 Uruguay
Jun 2013Spain 2-1 Uruguay
How to read this: these are calibrated probability estimates from a
ratings model, not a claim to beat the bookmakers and not betting advice. The model does not account for confirmed
lineups, injuries, or qualification scenarios. Every prediction is published before kickoff and graded on our
open ledger. If gambling is causing problems, call 1-800-GAMBLER.